With the ongoing Lok Sabha Elections 2024 nearing the last voting phase, the nation is eagerly waiting for the official vote count by the Election Commission of India (ECI). But before that exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be ready to capture attention.
Exit Polls Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Exit polls will be broadcast live on June 1, after the completion of the final voting phase. As per the information, voting for the last phase will continue till 6 pm on Saturday. The exit poll results will be going live after 6:30 pm. It will be these exit polls that the parties will follow before the results are declared between June 1 and June 4.
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The results of the high stakes general elections will be declared on June 4. The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections saw an impressive contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and INDIA bloc-led by the opposition parties.
What are Exit Polls?
Immediately after the conclusion of voting in parliamentary or assembly elections, exit polls are conducted. It provides useful insights into the potential outcomes of the elections. It is examined diligently by political analysts and psephologists to predict which party might hold an advantage in the election.
2024 Lok Sabha elections- BJP-led NDA vs Congress-led INDIA bloc
The BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA bloc are two major alliances that are competing for power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s NDA alliance is persistent in securing a third consecutive term in power, while the INDIA bloc wants to create an upset victory. The nation’s political landscape will be highly implicated by this high-stakes election.
The one-and-a-half month-long polling of the Lok Sabha elections will end at 6 pm on June 1. All eyes will be on exit poll results as it will forecast which party may have an advantage on the result day.
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Accuracy of Exit Polls
Exit polls calculate public sentiment and manage to keep them hooked but their accuracy depends on factors like sample size, the areas covered, and the readiness of voters to be honest. Voters not disclosing their genuine preferences can result in potential disparities. In previous years, exit poll predictions have been hit or miss.
How close were the exit polls in the past two general elections, 2014 and 2019? Both were won by the Narendra Modi-led BJP. The 2014 Lok Sabha polls were held between April 7 and May 12 and the results were announced on May 16, the 2019 polls extended from April 11 to May 19, and the results were out on May 23.
Before the exit poll survey data is revealed today, let’s take a look at the accuracy of exit polls in the past three Lok Sabha elections:
Previous predictions: Accuracy of exit polls 2009, 2014, and 2019
In the 2009 and 2004 elections, the exit polls saw considerable differences between exit poll predictions and actual results. In 2009, an average of four exit polls predicted UPA would win 195 seats and the NDA would win 185. But the UPA exceeded the exit poll projections, winning 262.
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Exit polls Vs Actual results
In 2014, most exit polls estimated the BJP-led NDA winning 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats. That year due to the ‘Modi wave’, NDA finished with 336 seats and the UPA with a mere 60.
Exit polls Vs Actual results
In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls gave 306 seats to the NDA, and in the actual result, they won by 353 seats.
Exit polls Vs Actual results
By law, as outlined in Section 126A of the Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, news channels and pollsters can only release exit poll numbers after the final phase of voting is complete. If this provision is violated, it can result in a prison term of up to two years, a fine, or both.
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